Oregon Population Forecast Program

.title[
# Oregon Population Forecast Program
]
.subtitle[
## Proposal Forecasts for Counties & UGBs
]
.author[
### Deschutes County
]
.institute[
### Portland State University Population Research Center
]
.date[
### March 2026
]

---

# Comments or Questions?

## Contact PSUPRC
Email: [askprc@pdx.edu](mailto:askprc@pdx.edu)  
Telephone: 503-725-3922

## Proposal Population Projections
https://www.pdx.edu/population-research/population-forecasts

---

# PSUPRC Project Team

**Huda Alkitkat, PhD.**  
*Population Estimates Manager*

**Seth Dowden**  
*Research Assistant*

**Neal Marquez, PhD.**  
*Population Forecast Manager*

**Gilbert Montcho, PhD.**  
*Demographic & Labor Econ Analyst*

**Scott Nordstrom, PhD.**  
*Post-Doctoral Researcher*
]

**Aja Sutton, PhD.**  
*Post-Doctoral Researcher*

**David Swanson, PhD.**  
*Research Associate*

**Suniva Thangaraj**  
*Program Manager*

**Joshua Wilde, PhD.**  
*Research Scientist*
]

---

# Deschutes County Outline

- Introduction
- Updates
- County Overview
- UGB Forecasts

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.pux-right {
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---

# PSUPRC OPFP Population Forecasts

.puz-left[
- For the purposes of land use planning PSUPRC generates population forecasts
- For counties, urban growth boundaries (UGBs), and areas outside UGBs
- These forecasts must
    - Be updated at least every four years
    - Cover a 50 year forecast horizon
    - Include most up to date data
    - Allow for public input/objections
    - Methods & results publicly available

]

.puz-right[
![Oregon Seal](https://sos.oregon.gov/PublishingImages/Oregon-State-Seal-Navy-Gold.png)
]

---
# Oregon Population Forecast Program Cycle

![Program Cycle](program_cycle.png)

---
# Methods Review: Cohort Component Method

.pux-left[
- For Counties
- Births = Females 15-50 * Birth Rate
  - Both number of and rate of births in OR decreasing
- Deaths = All Population * Death Rate
  - While number of deaths are increasing rate of deaths decreasing
- Migration = Past migration events
  - Average of past migration is most likely scenario moving forward

]

---
# Methods Review: Housing Unit Method

.pull-left[
- For UGBs
- `$P_t = P_{t-1} + \Delta HU*PPH*OCC$`
- `$PPH$`: Persons per household
  - Estimated from most recent census data
- `$OCC$`: Occupancy Rate
  - Estimated from most recent census data
- `$\Delta HU$`: annual change in housing units
  - Modeled based on past housing unit growth trends

]

---
# After this meeting

- Email for further follow up  
- March 30, 2026 forecast discussion period ends
- Chance to formally appeal until May 15, 2026
  - Will review appeals in the following week
- No further changes will be made after May 22, 2026
- Reports and data tables will be available June 15, 2026

---
class: center, middle, inverse

# Updates

---
# Survey and Preliminary Meeting Feedback

- Received housing and general survey responses from over 20 organizations
- Updated GIS UGB boundary lines 
- Account for large public works alter housing development trajectories
- Incorporate group quarter expansions
- Adjusted housing unit productions
- Housing build moratoriums
- General concerns
  - Restrictions on development  
  - Access to others responses
  
---
# Incoporation of 2025 Certified Estimates

![Estimates](./pop_est_page.png)

---
# Slowing Growth Across the State

![Oregonion](./opb_pop_growth_slow.png)

---

# Changes in Vital Trends

![Oregonion](./births_and_deaths.png)

---

# International Migration

![lex](./inter_mig.png)

---

# Domestic Mobility

![housing](./dom_mobility.png)

---
class: center, middle, inverse

# Deschutes County

---
# Summary of Considerations

- Population growth is slowing
- Housing production is picking up
- Negative natural change will hamper growth
- No adjustments to the county
- Minor adjustments to UGBs to capture faster Redmond growth

---

# Deschutes at a Glance: 2020 Census

<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Statistic </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Deschutes </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Oregon </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Total Population </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 198,253 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 4,237,256 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Population Aged 0-17 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 19.54% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 20.20% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Population Aged 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 20.59% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 18.25% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Population non-White </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 12.23% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 23.41% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.45 (94,110 units) </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.48 (1,813,747 units) </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>

---

# Deschutes Employment Changes

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health services Sector Jobs: 8,977","Year: 2013 County: Deschutes Industry: Education and health services Sector Jobs: 10,333","Year: 2018 County: Deschutes Industry: Education and health services Sector Jobs: 13,479","Year: 2023 County: Deschutes Industry: Education and health services Sector Jobs: 15,951"],"type":"bar","textposition":"none","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(219,142,0,1)","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Education and health services","legendgroup":"Education and health 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2013 County: Deschutes Industry: Government Sector Jobs: 8,494","Year: 2018 County: Deschutes Industry: Government Sector Jobs: 9,211","Year: 2023 County: Deschutes Industry: Government Sector Jobs: 10,099"],"type":"bar","textposition":"none","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(100,178,0,1)","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Government","legendgroup":"Government","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"orientation":"v","width":[0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177],"base":[0,0,0,0,0,0,0],"x":[1992.590909090909,1997.590909090909,2002.590909090909,2007.590909090909,2012.590909090909,2017.590909090909,2022.590909090909],"y":[667,921,1542,1615,1406,1863,1713],"text":["Year: 1993 County: Deschutes Industry: Information Sector Jobs: 667","Year: 1998 County: Deschutes Industry: Information Sector Jobs: 921","Year: 2003 County: Deschutes Industry: Information Sector Jobs: 1,542","Year: 2008 County: Deschutes Industry: Information Sector Jobs: 1,615","Year: 2013 County: Deschutes Industry: Information Sector Jobs: 1,406","Year: 2018 County: Deschutes Industry: Information Sector Jobs: 1,863","Year: 2023 County: Deschutes Industry: Information Sector Jobs: 1,713"],"type":"bar","textposition":"none","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(0,189,92,1)","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Information","legendgroup":"Information","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"orientation":"v","width":[0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177],"base":[0,0,0,0,0,0,0],"x":[1993,1998,2003,2008,2013,2018,2023],"y":[5620,6684,7767,9957,9906,12990,14450],"text":["Year: 1993 County: Deschutes Industry: Leisure and hospitality Sector Jobs: 5,620","Year: 1998 County: Deschutes Industry: Leisure and hospitality Sector Jobs: 6,684","Year: 2003 County: Deschutes Industry: Leisure and hospitality Sector Jobs: 7,767","Year: 2008 County: Deschutes Industry: Leisure and hospitality Sector Jobs: 9,957","Year: 2013 County: Deschutes Industry: Leisure and hospitality Sector Jobs: 9,906","Year: 2018 County: Deschutes Industry: Leisure and hospitality Sector Jobs: 12,990","Year: 2023 County: Deschutes Industry: Leisure and hospitality Sector Jobs: 14,450"],"type":"bar","textposition":"none","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(0,193,167,1)","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Leisure and hospitality","legendgroup":"Leisure and 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Jobs: 613","Year: 2013 County: Deschutes Industry: Natural resources and mining Sector Jobs: 533","Year: 2018 County: Deschutes Industry: Natural resources and mining Sector Jobs: 756","Year: 2023 County: Deschutes Industry: Natural resources and mining Sector Jobs: 857"],"type":"bar","textposition":"none","marker":{"autocolorscale":false,"color":"rgba(0,166,255,1)","line":{"width":1.8897637795275593,"color":"transparent"}},"name":"Natural resources and mining","legendgroup":"Natural resources and mining","showlegend":true,"xaxis":"x","yaxis":"y","hoverinfo":"text","frame":null},{"orientation":"v","width":[0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177,0.40909090909099177],"base":[0,0,0,0,0,0,0],"x":[1994.2272727272727,1999.2272727272727,2004.2272727272727,2009.2272727272727,2014.2272727272727,2019.2272727272727,2024.2272727272727],"y":[1967,3946,4800,7258,6879,10067,11131],"text":["Year: 1993 County: Deschutes 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---

# Deschutes Migration Flows

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---

# Deschutes Population

.pulll-left[
Growth in the county has slowed with the COVID-19 pandemic but still remains an outlier amongst others in the state.
]

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---

# Deschutes Compositional Changes

.pulll-left[
Migration has consistently been high in the county, however, natural change has been on the decline.
]

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]

---

# Deschutes Births

.pulll-left[
Births have increased over time but are expected to level off in the coming years with continued decline in fertility rates.
]

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]

---

# Deschutes Deaths

.pulll-left[
Deaths have been increasing, a pattern that is expected to continue as the population ages.
]

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]

---

# Deschutes Life Expectancy & TFR

---

# Population Pyramids

.pulll-left[
Substantial aging has occurred in the county over the past 30 years, and continue in the forecast period.
]

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]

---

# Deschutes Race and Ethnicity

.pulll-left[
The population is expected to continue to diversify with all groups expected to grow in the forecast period.
]

.pulll-right[
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---

# Deschutes UGB Population Changes

---

# Deschutes UGBs: Bend in Context

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<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 10.48% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 12.36% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 17.03% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 7,848 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 22,507 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 44,449 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 89.33% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 93.58% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 92.17% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.42 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.42 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.40 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $15,442 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $40,857 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $82,671 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 90.62% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 95.68% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 96.24% </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]

---

# Deschutes County: Bend UGB Boundaries

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---

# Bend UGB Pop Forecast

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# Bend UGB Pop Forecast

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# Deschutes UGBs: La Pine in Context

.pux-right[
<img src="Deschutes_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-21-1.png" width="800px" height="400px" />
]

.pux-left[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> NA </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 20.73% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 20.26% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> NA </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2,975 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 1,226 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> NA </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 78.35% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 84.91% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> NA </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.47 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.31 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> NA </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $29,859 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $50,625 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> NA </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 89.56% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 94.57% </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]

---

# Deschutes County: La Pine UGB Boundaries

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# La Pine UGB Pop Forecast

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# La Pine UGB Pop Forecast

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# Deschutes UGBs: Redmond in Context

.pux-right[
<img src="Deschutes_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-26-1.png" width="800px" height="400px" />
]

.pux-left[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 13.48% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 13.00% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 16.84% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2,678 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 5,584 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 13,262 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 89.73% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 94.20% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 95.66% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.65 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.54 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.61 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $14,542 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $33,701 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $72,798 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 88.14% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 94.70% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 92.80% </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]

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# Deschutes County: Redmond UGB Boundaries

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# Redmond UGB Pop Forecast

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# Redmond UGB Pop Forecast

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# Deschutes UGBs: Sisters in Context

.pux-right[
<img src="Deschutes_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-31-1.png" width="800px" height="400px" />
]

.pux-left[
<table>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> Metric </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 1980 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2000 </th>
 <th style="text-align:left;"> 2020 </th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
<tbody>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Pop 65+ </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 21.84% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 13.87% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 36.62% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Units </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 369 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 482 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 1,661 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Housing Occupancy </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 82.11% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 82.37% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 80.79% </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Persons Per Household </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.30 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.41 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 2.28 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Household Income </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $11,326 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $35,000 </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> $84,088 </td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> Employment Rate </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 87.78% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 94.30% </td>
 <td style="text-align:left;"> 95.99% </td>
 </tr>
</tbody>
</table>
]

---

# Deschutes County: Sisters UGB Boundaries

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# Sisters UGB Pop Forecast

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# Sisters UGB Pop Forecast

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# Comments or Questions?

## Contact PSUPRC
Email: [askprc@pdx.edu](mailto:askprc@pdx.edu)  
Telephone: 503-725-3922

## Preliminary Population Projections
https://www.pdx.edu/population-research/population-forecasts